Tropical Storm Melissa Expected to Become Hurricane by Friday on Path Toward Haiti and Jamaica

Tropical Storm Melissa is advancing very slowly toward southwestern Haiti and Jamaica and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Friday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The NHC has issued a hurricane watch for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-au-Prince, and a tropical storm watch for Jamaica.

The system continues to move through the Caribbean Sea and is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of Haiti and Jamaica for the remainder of the week.

The NHC has warned that hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in Haiti starting Friday, while Jamaica could begin to feel tropical storm conditions between Thursday and Friday.

According to the most recent NHC advisory, the center of Melissa was located about 515 kilometers south-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and 480 kilometers southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.

Melissa has maximum sustained winds of 85 kilometers per hour and is moving slowly west-northwest at 4 kilometers per hour.

The NHC has also warned of dangerous storm surge and rip currents that will affect the coasts of Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba in the coming days.

Local authorities are urging residents to stay informed through national meteorological services and to follow safety recommendations due to the potential for intense rainfall, sudden flooding, and landslides in mountainous and coastal areas.

Rainfall associated with Melissa could reach between 12 and 25 centimeters in southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Saturday, with locally higher amounts that could cause flash flooding and landslides. In the northern parts of these countries, 5 to 10 centimeters are forecast, and 2 to 7 centimeters are expected in Aruba and Puerto Rico.

According to the Miami-based NHC, Melissa could gradually strengthen and become a hurricane by Thursday as it approaches southwestern Haiti and Jamaica.

So far this year, there have been 13 cyclones in the Atlantic: Hurricanes Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto, and Imelda, and Tropical Storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Fernand, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, and Melissa. Chantal has been the only one to make landfall in the United States this year, where it caused two fatalities in North Carolina in July.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast an "above-normal" hurricane season, estimating between 13 and 18 tropical storms, of which between five and nine could become hurricanes.