Behind the Nebulae, Missiles Are Positioned

Three more men died on Thursday following a lethal kinetic attack by U.S. forces against a vessel—allegedly involved in drug trafficking—in international waters. This brings the total number of such actions in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific to approximately 17.

That same day, the U.S. Congress, by a margin of two votes—49 in favor and 51 against—failed to pass a bipartisan resolution. The measure sought to limit the actions, involving the use of Armed Forces "inside or against" Venezuela, directed by President Donald Trump, unless the Legislature issued a declaration of war.

During the presentation, Democratic Senator Tim Kaine argued that both the attacks on alleged narcotics vessels and the covert CIA operations on Venezuelan soil—which the President admitted to having authorized—could trigger a ground intervention.

Furthermore, he emphasized that, instead of acting unilaterally, if the administration considers military action necessary, it should submit an Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) for debate and a vote. Recall that this was the legislation that allowed George W. Bush to act "against terrorism" after the September 11, 2001 attacks, and it remains the primary legal authority used by the U.S. Government to employ force in Afghanistan. Let us not forget the saying that he who invented the law also created the loophole.

Finally, although only Republican Senators Rand Paul and Lisa Murkowski voted in favor, the highly close results highlight the internal division caused by the military deployment that has been underway since August for a supposed fight against drug trafficking.

While this was happening, another news story circulated on social media, underscoring the nebulous nature surrounding the issue: the Navy announced an operational pause for the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford. Three days after passing through the Strait of Gibraltar en route to the Caribbean, this ship—the most modern of its kind in the nation's navy—has not moved from North Africa.

When the deadline under the 1973 War Powers Resolution expired on Monday, November 3rd, the question was whether the law would be respected or these Executive actions would be approved. As of now, with Congress having given its "blessing" to the President for the military escalation, and with his statements to the press that he has not yet decided to attack Venezuela while simultaneously claiming that Nicolás Maduro's days are numbered, several analysts share the view that military action is imminent.

For its part, the South American nation's commercial ally, Russia, declared it would assist the country in this situation. Hypersonic ballistic missiles, such as the Oreshnik and Kalibr, appear to be entering Venezuela's defense system.

What will happen in the coming months, weeks, days, or hours? No one dares to say with absolute certainty. The opposing positions, the statements that both escalate and restrain... only leave the certainty that, from Washington, more is being done to prolong the threat than to resolve it.