Poll Shows Lula Leading in First Round and Tying in Potential Runoff

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads voting intentions for the first round of the presidential elections, but ties with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff, according to a poll released today.

The survey by the Real Time Big Data institute shows the head of state (Workers' Party) with 38 percent support, compared to 30 percent for the lawmaker (Liberal Party), ahead of the first round at the polls scheduled for October 4.

Following these two main figures, the race for the presidency includes Augusto Cury, of the Avante party, with 11 percent of preferences; followed by Renan Santos, of Missão, with seven; Ronaldo Caiado, of the Social Democratic Party, with four percent; and Romeu Zema, of Novo, with two percent.

Other candidates collectively account for two percent, while blank and spoiled votes represent three percent, and another three percent corresponds to those who did not know or did not respond.

To win in the first round, a candidate must secure an absolute majority of valid votes; if no candidate reaches that threshold, the top two finishers will compete in a runoff scheduled for October 25.

In that scenario, the survey projects a different outcome, as a potential runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro shows both candidates tied at 44 percent of preferences, while nine percent would opt for blank or spoiled votes, and three percent did not know or did not respond.

This result reflects a tighter contest than envisioned in July, when Lula held 45 percent support compared to Flávio Bolsonaro's 42 percent.

The study also presents other potential runoff scenarios, in which Caiado receives 45 percent against Lula's 43 percent, while the president receives 43 percent against Zema's 40 percent, and 44 percent compared to Santos's 37 percent.

The poll additionally included a first-round simulation featuring Pablo Marçal, an entrepreneur, influencer, and communicator who gained political prominence during the 2024 municipal elections as a candidate for mayor of São Paulo.

In this simulation, Lula maintains 38 percent, Flávio Bolsonaro receives 29, Cury 10, Renan Santos six, Caiado four, Marçal three, and Zema two.

Marçal announced his presidential candidacy in August under the Brazilian Labour Renewal Party and submitted his registration application; however, his legal status currently prevents him from being treated as a fully eligible candidate.

The politician remains ineligible through 2032 due to organizing contests offering prizes to incentivize the production of campaign-related video content, but he submitted a new registration request for the 2026 elections, and the Superior Electoral Court must decide whether to accept or reject that application.

The survey, which was conducted from August 27 to 31 among two thousand voters nationwide, has a margin of error of two percentage points.