The 2026 El Niño Threatens to Break Historical Records

The El Niño phenomenon, which emerged in the Pacific last month, continues to intensify and could become one of the strongest recorded in more than 75 years, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center.

Ocean temperatures well above normal

Sea surface temperatures—exceeding 1°C or more above usual values, the hallmark of the phenomenon—have already spread across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. During the last week, some areas of the eastern Pacific recorded temperatures up to 2.7°C above normal. The agency projects an 81% probability that the phenomenon will become a "very intense" episode, ranking among the largest events since comparable records began in 1950.

A phenomenon that will continue growing into 2027

The Climate Prediction Center projects that El Niño "will intensify through the end of the year," with a 97% probability of extending into early spring 2027, anticipating a prolonged period of global climate disruption. The agency clarified the scope of its effects: "Even the most intense El Niño events do not produce the typical impact everywhere, but stronger events can significantly tip the balance toward expected outcomes."

Why markets and governments monitor it closely

The phenomenon is actively tracked by stock traders, markets, and governments, as it provides key information on the likelihood of extreme weather events: floods, droughts, cold waves, and alterations in hurricane and typhoon activity in both the Atlantic and Pacific.

Direct impact on hurricane season

One of El Niño's most concrete effects is the increase in wind shear in the Caribbean, a phenomenon that disrupts the development of tropical storms and hurricanes during the season that began on June 1 and extends for six months.

Regionally differentiated effects

The phenomenon does not impact all regions of the planet equally. In the southern United States, El Niño tends to bring colder, wetter winters, while in Australia it increases the risk of drought and wildfires—a pattern already observed in previous episodes.