Colorado State University Lowers 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast to Eight Storms

Colorado State University (CSU), a leading authority in U.S. meteorology, has lowered its forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season to eight hurricanes, including three major ones classified as Category 3 or higher. The revision is down one storm from the previous outlook released a month ago.

The new report now anticipates “slightly above-normal” activity for the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. The total number of named storms has also been adjusted to 16, one fewer than the university’s June 9 projection.

The likelihood of a major hurricane—Category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall in the United States has decreased from 51 percent to 48 percent. While this marks a slight drop, the probability still exceeds the historical average of 43 percent, the report cautioned.

Specifically, there is a 25 percent chance of a major hurricane striking the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, and a 31 percent chance along the Gulf Coast, from northwestern Florida to Brownsville, Texas.

The primary reason for the downward adjustment is the "high level" of wind shear in the Caribbean, a meteorological phenomenon that involves rapid changes in wind speed or direction over short distances in the atmosphere.

“High levels of Caribbean wind shear in June and July are typically linked to less active hurricane seasons,” the report explained.

CSU’s forecast is independent from that of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which in May projected up to 10 hurricanes and 19 named storms for the 2025 Atlantic season, citing warmer sea temperatures and predicting above-average activity.

So far in the Atlantic, three named storms have formed: Andrea, Barry, and Chantal. Chantal became the first to make landfall in the United States this past Sunday, resulting in at least two fatalities in North Carolina.

Meanwhile, severe flooding is affecting parts of the southern United States. In Texas, more than 100 deaths and 160 people are missing following record rainfall over the past weekend. In New Mexico, three additional deaths were reported on Tuesday, including two children.

CSU emphasized that “only one landfalling hurricane is enough to make a season active,” urging continued vigilance regardless of the overall forecasted activity level.