The El Niño climate phenomenon has already begun and its effects could start being felt in Uruguay, according to a forecast today from the Brazilian meteorological consultancy Metsul, a reference in Montevideo.

Although the event develops in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, its consequences often extend to much of South America, including Uruguayan territory, where it could impact in the coming months.

The source assured that oceanic and atmospheric conditions observed during recent weeks allow the 2026-2027 episode to be considered underway, even though international agencies such as the U.S. NOAA have not yet officially declared it.

According to Metsul, the warming of Pacific surface waters has accelerated in recent days and reached values consistent with an El Niño event. Added to this are changes in the atmosphere that specialists consider characteristic of this climate phase.

The consultancy states that there is a high probability that the phenomenon will reach strong or very strong intensity during the second half of the year. It even maintains that it could become a "super Niño" and rank among the most intense episodes of modern times.

In Uruguay, historically, years influenced by El Niño tend to present above-normal rainfall, especially during spring and early summer. The probability of severe storms and episodes of intense rain also increases.

Specialists warn, however, that it is not possible to anticipate months in advance whether extreme events will occur, as these can only be forecast on much shorter timescales.

According to Metsul, the most noticeable impacts would begin to be observed during the second half of 2026 and could extend into the first months of 2027.