World Championships Doha 2019 predictions – men’s events

We take a look at who could fill the top eight spots in each of the men’s events over the next 10 days

Here are our predictions for the men’s events at the IAAF World Championships in Doha. Generally, we have gone with the rankings and form book and if a Briton is ranked 20th, we won’t predict a medal even if we have a sneaking suspicion that he might do much better than the rankings suggest.

We list a possible top eight and what we think the winning mark might be.

Click here for our women’s event predictions.

Whether you agree or disagree with our predictions, get vocal on Twitter and Facebook and let us know! Make sure you check out the September 26 edition of AW magazine for our full guide to the action, including rankings, news, interviews, facts, stats and more. A digital edition is available to buy and download here.

Online day-by-day guide | Final entries list

100m

Defending champion: Justin Gatlin (USA) 9.92
Olympic champion: Usain Bolt (JAM) 9.81
Though he has not raced since July, US and world indoor champion Christian Coleman is expected to go one better than in 2017. European champion Zharnel Hughes is an outside bet.
Prediction: 1 C Coleman (USA); 2 J Gatlin (USA); 3 A Simbine (RSA);4 Z Hughes (GBR); 5 A De Grasse (CAN); 6 Y Blake (JAM); 7 Xie Zhenye (CHN); 8 M Rodgers (USA). Winning mark: 9.74

200m

Defending champion: Ramil Guliyev (TUR) 20.09
Olympic champion: Usain Bolt (JAM) 19.78
Even though world and European champion Ramil Guliyev is in good form, it will be a surprise if he comes within three metres of US champion Noah Lyles, who averages 19.68 in his five finals in 2019! All three British runners are capable of medaling but may need a British record to do so.
Prediction: 1 N Lyles (USA); 2 R Guliyev (TUR); 3 A de Grasse (CAN); 4 C Coleman (USA); 5 A Gemili (GBR); 6 Xie Zhenye (CHN); 7 M Francis (GBR); 8 A Quinonez (ECU). Winning mark: 19.36

Photo by JP Durand

400m

Defending champion: Wayde Van Niekerk (RSA) 43.98
Olympic champion: Wayde Van Niekerk (RSA) 43.03
Fred Kerley surprisingly beat world leader and Diamond League winner Michael Norman in the US Championships but the latter starts favourite, having run 19.70 for 200m this season. The 2012 Olympic champion Kirani James could be back in the medals but Steven Gardiner looks the best non-US bet.
Prediction: 1 M Norman (USA); 2 F Kerley (USA); 3 S Gardiner (BAH); 4 K James (GRN); 5 A Bloomfield (JAM); 6 M Cedonio (TTO); 7 V Norwood (USA); 8 M Hudson-Smith (GBR). Winning time 43.44

800m

Defending champion: Pierre Ambroise-Bosse (FRA) 1:44.67
Olympic champion: David Rudisha (KEN) 1:42.15
World leader Nijel Amos has a poor World Champs record but starts favourite with his 1:41.89 clocking this summer. However, any one of 10 could win, with Emmanuel Korir and Donavan Brazier dangerous in a fast race and Adam Kszczot in a slow one.
Prediction: 1 N Amos (BOT); 2 E Korir (KEN); 3 A Kszczot (POL); 4 D Brazier (USA); 5 F Cheruiyot (KEN); 6 C Murphy (USA); 7 B McBride (CAN); 8 A Tuka (BIH). Winning mark: 1:43.55

1500m

Defending champion: Elijah Manangoi (KEN) 3:33.61
Olympic champion: Matt Centrowitz (USA) 3:50.00
The Diamond League winner Timothy Cheruiyot should easily improve on his London second place. It looks open for second with Roland Musagala and Jakob Ingebrigtsen the best of the rest but the latter might be vulnerable in a slow race to the likes of Marcin Lewandowski and even possibly one of the Brits.
Prediction: 1 T Cheruiyot (KEN); 2 J Ingebrigtsen (NOR); 3 M Lewandowski (POL) 4 A Souleiman (DJI); 5 R Musagala (UGA); 6 F Ingebrigtsen (NOR); 7 J Wightman (GBR); 8 G Manangoi (KEN). Winning mark: 3:35.35

5000m

Defending champion: Muktar Edris (ETH) 13:32.79
Olympic champion: Mo Farah (GBR) 13:03.30
Defending champion Muktar Edris was 18th in Lausanne, his one 5000m, but Ethiopia still have the fastest three on 2019 times. Telahun Haile, only fifth in the 2018 World Juniors, is the fastest but lacks championship guile and no one stands out as in the Farah era. The World Indoors runner-up Selemon Barega has been consistent and European champion Jakob Ingebritsen will be a danger though neither has won at 5000m this year.
Prediction: 1 J Ingebrigtsen (NOR); 2 S Barega (ETH); 3 H Gebrhiwet (ETH); 4 T Haile (ETH); 5 N Kimeli (KEN); 6 S McSweyn (AUS); 7 P Chelimo (USA); 8 M Ahmed (CAN). Winning mark: 13:11.45

Photo by Mark Shearman

10,000m

Defending champion: Mo Farah (GBR) 26:49.51
Olympic champion: Mo Farah (GBR) 27:05.17
With six sub-27 men to choose between, Ethiopia have the men in form with world indoor mile record-holder Yomif Kejelcha certain to be dangerous on the last lap. World junior champion Rhonex Kipruto is the fastest of the Kenyans while the 2017 runner-up Joshua Cheptegei is bound to be a factor.
Prediction: 1 Y Kejelcha (ETH); 2 J Cheptegei (UGA); 3 R Kipruto (KEN); 4 H Gebrhiwet (ETH); 5 L Lomong (USA); 6 A Belihu (ETH); 7 M Ahmed (CAN); 8 R Chumo (KEN). Winning mark: 27:34.65

Marathon

Defending champion: Geoffrey Kirui (KEN) 2:08:27
Olympic champion: Eliud Kipchoge (KEN) 2:08:44
Unless Eliud Kipchoge is competing, championship marathons are hard to predict and even more so when most of the big names are missing and athletes are competing in 35 degree-plus temperatures. Based on his 2:02:55 Ethiopian record in London, Mosinet Geremew is the favourite if he copes with the heat but also in the field is London third-placer Mule Wasihun, who ran 2:03:16 there. Defending champion Geoffrey Kirui has not shown the same form this year but has past sub-27 10,000m pace to call upon. Callum Hawkins might be wary to attempt to place highly in the conditions after his Commonwealth DNF.
Prediction: 1 M Geremew (ETH); 2 G Kirui (KEN); 3 M Wasihun (ETH); 4 Y Kawauchi (JPN); 5 S Mokoka (RSA); 6 T Abraham (SUI); 7 P Lonyongata (KEN); 8 S Kiprotich (UGA). Winning mark: 2:15:45

3000m steeplechase

Defending champion: Conseslus Kipruto (KEN) 8:14.12
Olympic champion: Conseslus Kipruto (KEN) 8:03.28
The world and Olympic champion Conseslus Kipruto has struggled with injury and dropped out of the African Games and Kenyan trials, but can’t be written off entirely. The 2017 runner-up Soufiane El Bakkali is marginal favourite but African Games winner Benjamin Kigen and Diamond league winner Getnet Wale are at around the same level.
Prediction: 1 S El Bakkali (MAR); 2 G Wale (ETH); 3 B Kigen (KEN); 4 C Kipruto (KEN); 5 A Kibiwot (KEN); 6 L Bett (KEN); 7 C Beyo (ETH); 8 F Carro (ESP). Winning mark: 8:11.35

110m hurdles

Defending champion: Omar McLeod (JAM) 13.04
Olympic champion: Omar McLeod (JAM) 13.05
Omar McLeod is another multi global champion yet to show his best this season but a Berlin win in 13.07 suggests he is hitting form. The Americans Grant Holloway and Daniel Roberts top the rankings but this is their first major championships. More used to big events, Orlando Ortega and Sergey Shubenkov should also be in the medal mix.
Prediction: 1 O McLeod (JAM); 2 G Holloway (USA); 3 O Ortega (ESP); 4 D Roberts (USA); 5 S Shubenkov (ANA); 6 Xie Wenjun (CHN); 7 P Martinot-Lagarde (FRA); 8 R Levy (JAM). Winning mark: 12.97

Photo by Mark Shearman

400m hurdles

Defending champion: Karsten Warholm (NOR) 48.35
Olympic champion: Kerron Clement (USA) 47.73

This could be the race of the championships between the main contenders who make up three-quarters of history’s sub-47 performers. Defending champion Karsten Warholm is a far better athlete now than the one who won in London but he will have to be when up against local star Abderrahman Samba and US champion Rai Benjamin, who pushed him all the way in Zurich. It could take a world record to win.
Prediction: 1 K Warholm (NOR); 2 R Benjamin (USA); 3 A Samba (QAT); 4 K McMaster (IVB); 5 Y Copello (TUR);6 L Vaillant (FRA); 7 T Holmes (USA); 8 A dos Santos (BRA). Winning mark: 46.85

High jump

Defending champion: Mutaz Essa Barshim (QAT) 2.35m
Olympic champion: Derek Drouin (CAN) 2.38m
The 2017 winner Mutaz Essa Barshim will have huge home support but with a 2.27m season’s best and a 2.20m in his last competition, he does not appear to have the form. 22 athletes have jumped 2.30m this year and that distance could well medal. European runner-up Maksim Nedosekov, with a Diamond League victory in Zurich and a ranking-topping 2.35m, looks the marginal favourite.
Prediction: 1 M Nedosekov (BLR); 2 B Bondarenko (UKR); 3 M El Dein Ghazal (SYR); 4 I Ivanyuk (ANA); 5 M Przybylko (GER); 6 M Essa Barshim (QAT); 7 M Akimenko (ANA); 8 Wang Yu (CHN). Winning mark: 2.33m

Pole vault

Defending champion: Sam Kendricks (USA) 5.95m
Olympic champion: Thiago Braz Da Silva (BRA) 6.03m
The three six-metre jumpers this summer – defending champion Sam Kendricks, European winner Armand Duplantis and London runner-up Piotr Lisek – start as the likeliest contenders. However, the next three in the rankings are Olympic champion Thiago Braz da Silva, European indoor champion Pawel Wojciechowski and world record-holder Renaud Lavillenie in what should be a cracking quality event.
Prediction: 1 S Kendricks (USA); 2 P Lisek (POL); 3 A Duplantis (SWE); 4 R Lavillenie (FRA); 5 T Braz da Silva (BRA); 6 P Wojciechowski (POL); 7 R Holzdeppe (GER); 8 C Walsh (USA). Winning mark: 6.00m

Long jump

Defending champion: Luvo Manyonga (RSA) 8.48m
Olympic champion: Jeff Henderson (USA) 8.38m
The Diamond League winner Juan Miguel Echevarría has dominated 2019 thus far and should add a world outdoor title to his indoor one. The reigning champion Luvo Manyonga has not been in such convincing form this year but still should medal. Shontaro Shiroyama jumped 8.40m last month but has nothing to back up that form.
Prediction: 1 J Echevarria (CUB); 2 L Manyonga (RSA); 3 M Tentoglou (GRE); 4 T Gayle (JAM); 5 J Henderson (USA); 6 Y Hashioka (JPN); 7 R Samaai (RSA); 8 T Montler (SWE). Winning mark: 8.71m

Photo by Mark Shearman

Triple jump

Defending champion: Christian Taylor (USA) 17.68m
Olympic champion: Christian Taylor (USA) 17.86m
Christian Taylor has won five of the last six global outdoor championships and is cracking form but his great rival, the world indoor champion Will Claye, looks in even better shape with a pair of 18 metre jumps this summer. Claye has five global outdoor medals but not gold. Omar Craddock could make it a US sweep.
Prediction: 1 W Claye (USA); 2 C Taylor (USA); 3 O Craddock (USA); 4 P Pichardo (POR); 5 F Zango (BUR); 6 J Diaz (CUB); 7 D Scott (USA); 8 B Williams (GBR). Winning mark: 18.11m

Shot

Defending champion: Tom Walsh (NZL) 22.03m
Olympic champion: Ryan Crouser (USA) 22.52m
Eight athletes have thrown 22 metres this summer and a further seven 21.40m or better so a high-class competition looks guaranteed. Consistent defending champion Tomas Walsh has the best overall record but Olympic champion Ryan Crouser tops the rankings.
Prediction: 1 T Walsh (NZL); 2 R Crouser (USA); 3 M Haratyk (POL); 4 D Romani (BRA); 5 K Bukowiecki (POL); 6 D Hill (USA); 7 J Kovacs (USA); 8 J Gill (NZL). Winning mark: 22.16m

Discus

Defending champion: Andrius Gudzius (LTU) 69.21m
Olympic champion: Christophe Harting (GER) 68.37m
Daniel Stahl was runner-up in the World and European Championships but has been the man in form this summer. Commonwealth champion Fedrick Dacres looks likely to win his first global senior medal.
Prediction: 1 D Stahl (SWE); 2 F Dacres (JAM); 3 A Gudzius (LTU); 4 L Weisshaidinger (AUT); 5 P Malachowski (POL); 6 C Harting (GER); 7 O Isene (NOR); 8 T Smikle (JAM). Winning mark: 68.86m

Hammer

Defending champion: Pawel Fajdek (POL) 79.81m
Olympic champion: Dilshod Nazarov (TJK) 78.68m
This looks on paper to be a battle between the two Polish 80-metre throwers. Three-time world winner Pawel Fajdek has the better record but Wojciech Nowicki defeated him at the Europeans and has the longer marks this year.
Prediction: 1 P Fajdek (POL); 2 W Nowicki (POL); 3 B Halasz (HUN); 4 D Lukyanov (ANA); 5 N Miller (GBR); 6 J Cienfuegos (ESP): 7 E Henriksen (NOR); 8 D Nazarov (TJK). Winning mark: 80.44m

Javelin

Defending champion: Johannes Vetter (GER) 89.89m
Olympic champion: Thomas Rohler (GER) 90.30m
European bronze medallist Magnus Kirt has been the man in form with the best overall marks but defending champion Johannes Vetter beat him in The Match with a 90.03m throw. This is open and any one of the sixteen 85m throwers this year could come out on top.
Prediction: 1 J Vetter (GER); 2 M Kirt (EST); 3 C Chao-Tsun (TPE); 4 A Hofmann (GER); 5 J Yego (KEN); 6 T Rohler (GER); 7 A Peters (GRN); 8 E Matusevicius (LTU). Winning mark: 88.90m

Photo by Mark Shearman

Decathlon

Defending champion: Kevin Mayer (FRA) 8768
Olympic champion: Ashton Eaton (USA) 8893
Though he has not completed a decathlon this summer, defending champion and world record-holder Kevin Mayer will win if he avoids making an error as he did in the Europeans where he failed to get a long jump mark. Gotzis winner Damian Warner easily looks the best of the rest.
Prediction: 1 K Mayer (FRA); 2 D Warner (CAN); 3 L Victor (GRN); 4 K Kazmirek (GER); 5 N Kaul (GER); 6 P LaPage (CAN); 7 I Shkurenyov (ANA); 8 T Duckworth (GBR). Winning mark: 8876

20km walk

Defending champion: Eider Arévalo (COL) 1:18:53
Olympic champion: Wang Zhen (CHN) 1:19:14
Japan dominate the ranking lists and will be keen to lay down a marker before next year’s Olympics. Asian champion Toshikazu Yamanishi heads the rankings from Universiade winner Koki Ikedi.
Prediction: 1 T Yamanishi (JPN); 2 K Ikedi (JPN); 3 V Mizinov (ANA); 4 E Takahashi (JPN); 5 M Stano (ITA); 6 C Bonfim (BRA): 7 C Linke (GER); 8 P Karlstrom (FIN). Winning mark: 1:21:32

50km walk

Defending champion: Yohann Diniz (FRA) 3:33:12
Olympic champion: Matej Toth (SVK) 3:40:58
Defending champion Yohann Diniz will have to repel a strong Chinese challenge and survive the heat. Also in contention are Japan’s 20km world record-holder Yusuke Suzuki and Olympic winner Matej Toth, who has yet to complete a 50km walk this year.
Prediction: 1 Y Suzuki (JPN); 2 Y Diuniz (FRA); 3 M Toth (SVK); 4 Wang Qin (CHN); 5 Niu Wenbin (CHN); 6 T Noda (JPN); 7 Luo Yadong (CHN); 8 H Haukenes (NOR). Winning mark: 3:45:55

4x100m

Defending champion: GBR 37.47
Olympic champion: Jamaica 37.27
USA will have the fastest sprinters but will they be the best drilled? Britain won in London and will be in contention again if their best sprinters survive the 100m and 200m. On paper both Japan and China have sufficient quality performers to be well inside 38 seconds and are usually technically proficient. Jamaica, without Usain Bolt, don’t look the same force but will also be in the medal hunt.
Prediction: 1 USA; 2 JPN; 3 GBR; 4 CHN; 5 JAM; 6 BRA; 7 NED; 8 GER. Winning mark: 37.66

Photo by Mark Shearman

4x400m

Defending champion: TTO 2:58:12
Olympic champion: USA 2:57:30
If most of their best quartet run, USA will win very easily. Defending champions Trinidad and Jamaica should take the other medals. Britain could squeeze into the finals and even be a factor if Matthew Hudson-Smith is at his best.
Prediction: 1 USA; 2 TTO; 3 JAM; 4 BOT; 5 POL; 6 BEL; 7 GBR; 8 JPN. Winning mark: 2:56.32