After an exceptional season crowned with the Champions League title, PSG forward Ousmane Dembélé appears as the clear favorite for the Ballon d’Or, which will be awarded this Monday in Paris. Only Spain’s young prodigy, Lamine Yamal, seems poised to challenge the Frenchman for the prestigious prize.

Starting at 7:30 p.m. local time (5:30 p.m. GMT), players and football personalities will walk the red carpet at the Théâtre du Châtelet—host of the Ballon d’Or gala in recent years—before a multitude of television cameras and photographers.

A few hours later, the name of the player who will succeed Spain’s Rodri Hernández—winner of the men’s Ballon d’Or in 2024—will be announced. The award is based on votes from about one hundred sports journalists worldwide.

Trophies Versus Talent

The favorite, according to betting odds, is Dembélé, who last season—following Kylian Mbappé’s departure to Real Madrid—rose as the leader of a Paris Saint-Germain side that won every possible title except the newly introduced Club World Cup, where Chelsea denied the French club a perfect campaign.

If predictions hold, Dembélé would become the sixth French footballer to win the Ballon d’Or, three years after Karim Benzema. That edition was the first in which the award was determined by performance across a football season rather than the calendar year, as had been the case previously.

At 28, Dembélé seems to be in the prime of his career. His main rival, however, is 18-year-old Lamine Yamal, overflowing with talent.

Despite still being a minor, Yamal led Spain to victory at Euro 2024. Last season marked his true breakthrough with Barcelona, dazzling audiences in stadiums across Spain and Europe, most memorably in the semifinal against Inter—even though the Italians advanced to the final.

Even if Yamal falls short this Monday, his coach Hansi Flick voiced what many analysts believe: “One day we will see Lamine win the Ballon d’Or.”

Some even argue he will claim more than one, though it will be difficult for the young talent to reach the record tallies of Lionel Messi (seven awards) and Cristiano Ronaldo (five).

PSG and Real Madrid on the Sidelines

While Dembélé awaits the decision of France Football, the French magazine that grants the award, his PSG teammates will be facing Marseille in the rescheduled Classique, postponed Sunday due to storm threats.

On the back of their historic treble—Champions League, Ligue 1, and Coupe de France—Paris Saint-Germain boasts nine players among the 30 Ballon d’Or nominees. They include Désiré Doué, Achraf Hakimi, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Nuno Mendes, João Neves, Fabián Ruiz, Vitinha, and goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, now playing for Manchester City.

In Paris, efforts have been made to consolidate votes behind Dembélé’s candidacy. “Ousmane Ballon d’Or!” PSG coach Luis Enrique declared at a press conference on Saturday.

“If he doesn’t win, then there’s a problem,” club president Nasser Al-Khelaifi added.

One of the award’s criteria is also fair play, and in this regard, Dembélé appears to have the edge over Yamal. The Frenchman, shy and reserved, has never been involved in controversies off the pitch, whereas the young Spaniard faced heavy criticism for an ostentatious birthday party that featured hired dwarfs for entertainment.

Still, many recall what happened exactly a year ago, when Brazilian forward Vinícius Júnior was considered the overwhelming favorite after a spectacular season with Real Madrid—only for Rodri to take home the prize.

Who Will Succeed Aitana?

That decision prompted Real Madrid to boycott the gala after learning hours earlier that its player would not be awarded, sending no representatives—a stance the club seems likely to repeat this Monday, though it can point to a “justification”: a LaLiga clash against Levante scheduled for Tuesday.

The men’s Ballon d’Or will serve as the highlight of a gala that will also honor numerous other winners, including the top women’s player of the season—a much more uncertain contest.

Aitana Bonmatí, winner of the women’s Ballon d’Or in 2023 and 2024, remains arguably the best player in the world, alongside her teammate Alexia Putellas (who claimed the award in 2021 and 2022). But the Spanish stars face strong competition from England’s Alessia Russo, Leah Williamson, and Chloe Kelly, who not only won the Euro 2024 against Spain but also defeated Barcelona in the Champions League final.

For the first time, the ceremony will feature female equivalents for all the awards presented in men’s football.