French Parliament Votes on Confidence in Fragile Prime Minister

French Prime Minister François Bayrou will face a confidence vote today in the National Assembly after delivering a general policy address before the bicameral Parliament, with very slim chances of emerging unscathed.

It is a decisive day for the current French government under the watchful eye of President Emmanuel Macron, who is also being targeted by major opposition sectors. The head of state, however, has already ruled out resigning “regardless of the outcome for Bayrou, his cabinet, or the 2026 budget plan.”

Fully aware of opposition control in the Assembly and facing threats of new no-confidence motions, Bayrou invoked Article 49 of the Constitution, interrupting Parliament’s recess on Monday to request the trust of deputies—a do-or-die move to try to salvage his budget proposal.

From the left—represented in the lower house by the France Unbowed party, Socialists, Communists, and Greens—to the far-right National Rally, which holds the largest number of seats individually, opposition forces have already vowed to seek Bayrou’s downfall.

At the heart of the dispute lies the government’s budget plan, which it defends as the only way out of France’s deteriorating public finances, while the opposition denounces it as “an attack on workers and the most vulnerable citizens.”

The proposal includes more than €43 billion in savings and spending cuts, along with the elimination of two public holidays—an especially unpopular measure.

The session is set to begin at 3:00 p.m. local time, with Bayrou’s general policy address before both chambers. In the Senate, Education Minister Élisabeth Borne will read the statement, after which political groups will have the right to intervene.

Around 7:00 p.m., the confidence vote is expected. If opposition lawmakers act as they have pledged, it will result in the government’s collapse.

Since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958, Article 49 has been invoked 41 times. However, no prime minister has ever lost office through this mechanism.

Should Bayrou fall, as widely anticipated, several names are already circulating as possible successors at Matignon, including current ministers Sébastien Lecornu, Gérald Darmanin, and Catherine Vautrin, as well as Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure.